Thursday, June 8, 2017

According To My Composite Of Publicly Available Forward P/e Estimates, The Current Forward P/e On The S&p At The Intraday Trade Of 2,432 (friday, June 2) Is 19.8.

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May Employment Update: Confirms Growth Outlook; S&P Valuation High

It typically takes three consecutive months of a change in sign (from positive to negative and vice versa) to confirm a change in outlook. According to my composite of publicly available forward P/E estimates, the current forward P/E on the S&P at the intraday trade of 2,432 (Friday, June 2) is 19.8. I consider this the high-end of fair value and have concerns the market is vulnerable to a shock at this level. I would prefer to buy more aggressively at a lower P/E, perhaps around 17.0, which would equate to roughly 2,100 on the S&P. However, I would continue to make regularly planned dollar-cost averaging allocations to equities that investors intend to hold for the long term, such as monthly or bi-weekly contributions to a 401(k) plan. I don't recommend investors ทําบัตรต่างด้าวใหม่ 2559 completely avoid what appears to be an elevated stock market during periods of economic expansion. In an expansion, companies have the ability to grow into their P/Es by raising their earnings per share. What looks like a rich market P/E today may be more reasonable six to twelve months later as the "E" in "P/E" moves higher. A five-year chart of the valuation composite and the S&P 500 is below. The S&P has climbed about 7% so far this year, even while the market P/E has remained roughly steady and elevated.

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